The GSR market predicted that after the launch of the Solana ETF, the price may spike 9X from the current price of $144 to $1320, and its market cap can reach up to $614 billion at the current market supply.
The theory of GSR is based on the “blue sky” scenario; however, its bear side suggests only a 1.4x increase in price. On June 27, GSR published a report that described Solana as a part of “crypto’s big three” and examined whether Solana would be the next spot cryptocurrency ETF to gain U.S. regulatory approval.
GSR, which holds a long position on SOL, estimated an “8.9x” increase, assuming spot Solana ETFs would capture 14% of the flows seen by spot Bitcoin ETFs since January, based on market cap size.
GSR’s “bear” scenario predicts spot Solana ETFs would capture 2% of Bitcoin’s flows, resulting in a 1.4x price increase for Solana, while the “baseline” scenario sees a 5% capture, leading to a 3.4x rise.
The firm estimated that the impact would be even greater if Spot Solana ETF accepted income from staking rewards. However, the approval of the Spot ETH ETF did not include the staking reward.
“Solana is poised for a spot ETF if and when additional spot digital asset ETFs are allowed in the US, and the impact on price may just be the largest yet.”
Despite GSR’s optimism, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and many others believe that a change in the U.S. President and the SEC Chair would be needed for the Solana ETF to be seriously considered.
The Solana ecosystem has also garnered positive remarks from $1.5 trillion asset manager Franklin Templeton, although the firm hasn’t confirmed plans for a spot in the Solana ETF. Globally, over $1 billion worth of Solana exchange-traded products are already available.
